How to monitor changes in the popularity of console games?

Secondary Market Analysis and User Behavior.

Delivered in 2016

Project Objective

Creating a BI system that tracks user activity in the secondary game market — recording posted offers, reactions to them, and completed transactions. The goal was to build a complete picture of supply, demand, and price trends, while supporting:

• determining realistic purchase and sales prices for games,
• analysis of title popularity,
• precise user segmentation for advertising campaigns.

Challenge:

The system had to cover:

• tens of thousands of offers posted and received by users,
• data on games, their declared value, number of exchanges, offer statuses (completed, rejected, no response),
• transactional data and user behavior over the years.

Everything had to work in Excel, without the need for commercial BI tools.

Solution

The built system:

• was based on Power Pivot and DAX, fed with data from MySQL,
• analyzed: market value, number of transactions, interest in games, offer success rates, etc.,
• allowed filtering by game title, offer type (cash, exchange), platform, media version, account status,
• enabled profiling users for specific marketing actions – e.g., active players, users without completed offers, or those owning popular titles.

Key System Features

• Supply and demand summary – how many people are looking for a specific game, how many are offering it, average response time, and how many result in a transaction.
• Secondary market value – the total value of all listed games and the combined value of offers (cash vs exchange).
• Trend analysis – e.g., declining interest in a game series or a surge after a new installment release.
• Offer success rate – how many offers for a given game resulted in a transaction compared to the number of listings.
• Interest vs availability comparison – shows which games are in demand but hard to obtain – ideal for dynamic buy price setting.

Results

• Market intelligence – which titles have the greatest sales and purchase potential.
• Automated determination of buy and sell prices for used games.
• Identification of user groups for remarketing campaigns – e.g., players who tried to sell a game 3 times without success.
• Identification of buying opportunities – games available significantly below average market value.

General Dashboard – Market Structure, Prices and Game Interest

Description:

The main analytical screen that combines data on the value of listed offers, interest in games, and overall market structure.

Key elements:

• Pie chart: share of “for sale” vs “wanted” offers.
• Line and column chart: changes in player activity over time – number of offers, logins, exchanges.
• Offer value comparison: cash vs declared game price.
• “Games Availability vs Interest” summary – how many copies are offered vs how many are sought.

Effect:

Allows understanding which games are undervalued by the market and which have demand significantly exceeding supply – key data for pricing and sales campaigns.

Market Value and Transaction History

Description:

A view analyzing the monetary value of the market over time – broken down into exchanges and cash transactions.

Key elements:

• Stacked column chart: number of transactions over months and their total value.
• Segmentation: by game version (digital/physical), offer type (cash / exchange), transaction year.
• Comparison: total market value of games vs total cash paid.

Effect:

Enables estimation of the platform’s real trading potential, identification of seasonal peaks (e.g., December), and drawing conclusions for pricing strategy.

PS4 Dashboard – Market Behavior After Releases and Popularity Peaks

Description:

A view dedicated to PS4 market analysis for 2014–2015. At the center: dynamics of offers and logins, and interest in the latest titles.

Key elements:

• Top chart: trend of offers and logins – with clear peaks after releases.
• Market value broken down by month.
• Game ranking – most wanted vs most offered.

Effect:

Enables immediate detection of consumer trend changes – e.g., a new game appears but few people offer it = ideal title for bulk buying.

Detailed Supply and Demand Comparison

Description:

Comparison of game availability to the number of players looking for them (interest in a given title).

Key elements:

• Top chart: “Games Availability vs Interest” – number of offers vs number of interested users.
• Bottom chart: “Offers Success” – how many offers resulted in a transaction.
• Segmentation by game title, version, and offer type.

Effect:

Helps precisely identify games with a low offer success rate – e.g., many interested buyers but few sellers = potential opportunity to capture the market.

Market Value Analysis by Transaction Type

Description:

A view showing the monetary value of transactions in a given period – broken down into cash and declared game value.

Key elements:

• Value chart: total value of all offers and actual transaction amounts.
• Filters by game version, offer type, year.
• Ability to compare years – market value growth/decline.

Effect:

Helps understand market direction – whether the value of cash offers is growing or exchanges dominate trading structure.

Seller User Behavior Indicators

Description:

Charts of activity trends for users listing games for sale – analysis of their effectiveness and persistence.

Key elements:

• Trend of logins and number of listed offers.
• Groups: cash only, exchange only, both types.
• Comparison: users who “completed” vs “did not complete” any transaction.

Effect:

Profiles users with high conversion potential for advertising and remarketing actions – e.g., reminder about an unfinished offer.